Marc Meléndez Schofield - Tiddlywiki notebook

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[[Welcome]]

[[Home|http://marcmmw.freeshell.org/index.html]]

[[Physics]]
[[Philosophy]]
[[Anthropology]]
[[About me|Marc]]

[[System Menu]]

My name is Marc Meléndez Schofield and I am a graduate student in [[physics|Physics]] and [[philosophy|Philosophy]]. I am a BA in Philosophy (University of Sussex), and I have also achieved degrees in [[philosophy|Philosophy]], [[social and cultural anthropology|Anthropology]] and [[physics|Physics]] at the Spanish open university (UNED). I am currently living in Madrid.
!Contact
Write to me at marcmmw@sdf.lonestar.org

!Posibilidad e incertidumbre en argumentos modales y probabilísticos.

Esta tesis propone el análisis de las nociones de probabilidad y modalidad en términos de conceptos de posibilidad e incertidumbre inspirados por la teoría de la argumentación. Tanto la probabilidad como la modalidad son temas de gran interés filosófico y son objeto de debates apasionados e investigaciones actuales, especialmente en filosofía de la ciencia ([3], [12]). Pero los razonamientos probabilísticos y modales no sólo se encuentran en la práctica totalidad de las ciencias naturales y sociales, sino que también juegan un papel importante en áreas principalmente filosóficas, como la ética y la metafísica ([13], [9]). La investigación cuidada de estos argumentos es, por tanto, de interés privilegiado. La teoría de la argumentación ([10], [11]) ha demostrado la importancia de examinar las reglas de juego implícitas en los razonamientos lógicos, pero las implicaciones de esta estrategia siguen siendo objeto de investigaciones actuales (buena prueba de ello son las publicaciones académicas arbitradas [1] y [6], entre otras).

En lugar de utilizar el enfoque clásico de mundos posibles como conjuntos consistentes máximos de proposiciones, entre los cuales se definen, de modo más o menos arbitrario, relaciones de accesibilidad [5], este trabajo se fija en el uso del concepto “posible” en la estructura racional de los argumentos modales y probabilísticos. Desde esta perspectiva, se define la posibilidad como compatibilidad lógica con las restricciones del argumento, habitualmente implícitas en el contexto. La consideración de una deducción modal como un entimema permite explicitar en muchos casos las relaciones de accesibilidad como consecuencia de las restricciones presupuestas en el contexto. Este enfoque muestra que hay argumentos modales falaces en los que el origen de la incorrección no es semántica, sino el cambio sutil, en el desarrollo del argumento, de las restricciones que determinan lo que es posible.

Para el estudio de los argumentos que involucran probabilidades se invoca el concepto adicional de incertidumbre, definido como la ausencia de un criterio que permita determinar cuál de varias alternativas posibles es actual.  El principio de indiferencia o de razón insuficiente, que asigna la misma probabilidad a todas las posibilidades equivalentes (en el sentido de que se distinguen sólo por el nombre), implica el concepto de incertidumbre descrito aquí, pero no se da la implicación contrapuesta. Del hecho de que el contexto impida determinar a priori cuál de varias posibilidades se da de hecho no se deriva que pueda asignarse a cada posibilidad una probabilidad bien determinada. Se suele reservar el concepto de riesgo (risk) para aquellos casos en los que sí se pueden asignar estas probabilidades [7].

Esta noción de probabilidad en términos de posibilidad e incertidumbre tiene la ventaja de ser compatible con las dos principales posturas filosóficas en el debate acerca de la probabilidad: el frecuencialismo y el bayesianismo; por lo que se admitirá que ambas son igualmente válidas y útiles, tal como han defendido Hacking [4] y Gillies [3], y se analizarán los contextos en los que cada una de ellas es aplicable. Se mostrará además la productividad de este tipo de análisis en el estudio de argumentos concretos.

Por último, el punto de vista adoptado en esta tesis se someterá a examen para determinar si es una interpretación adecuada de la probabilidad, utilizando criterios tales como los que propuso Salmon [8].

Esta tesis asumirá los siguientes tres objetivos:
# Explicitar las convenciones implícitas en los argumentos probabilísticos y modales, y estudiar los compromisos dialécticos adquiridos en el transcurso de una discusión, utilizando una estrategia análoga a la de Brandom [2].
# Detectar y diagnosticar falacias modales causadas por imprecisiones o cambios ilegítimos en los sentidos de las nociones modales, mostrando cómo podrían aplicarse estos diagnósticos al análisis de argumentos en la filosofía de la ciencia o en cuestiones científicas.
# Determinar los límites de validez del enfoque propuesto.

!!Bibliografía

[1] ''Argumentation'', Springer Netherlands (ISSN: 0920-427X).
[2] ''Brandom, R. B.'': //Making It Explicit. Reasoning, Representing and Discursive Commitment//, Harvard University Press (1998).
[3] ''Gillies, D.'': //Philosophical Theories of Probability//, Routledge (2000).
[4] ''Hacking, I'': //An Introduction to Probability and Inductive Logic//, Cambridge University Press (2001).
[5] ''Hughes, G. E. & Cresswell, M. J.'': //A New Introduction to Modal Logic//, Routledge (1996).
[6] ''Informal Logic'', (ISSN: 0824-2577).
[7] ''Knight, F.H.'': //Risk, Uncertainty, and Profit//, Houghton Mifflin Company (1921).
[8] ''Salmon, W.'': //The Foundations of Scientific Inference//, University of Pittsburgh Press (1966).
[9] ''Swartz, N.'': //Beyond Experience: Metaphysical Theories and Philosophical Constraints//, University of Toronto Press (1991).
[10] ''Toulmin, S. E.'': //The Uses of Argument//, Cambridge University Press (1958).
[11] ''Van Eemeren, F. & Grootendorst, R.'': //A systematic theory of argumentation. The pragma-dialected approach//, Cambridge University Press (2004).
[12] ''Van Fraassen, B.'': //Quantum Mechanics: An Empiricist View//, Oxford University Press (1991).
[13] ''Von Wright, G. H.'': //An Essay in Deontic Logic and the General Theory of Action//, North Holland Publishing Co. (1968).

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* [[Memoria de tesis|Memoria de tesis doctoral (Filosofía)]] (Spanish)
* Abstract

Articles:
* [[Consistency and truth in logic|http://marcmmw.freeshell.org/eng/logic/consistency_and_truth.html]]

\[e^{i\pi} - 1 = 0\]

Mathematics presented with the [[JSMath plugin|Plugin: jsMath]].

/***
|Name|Plugin: jsMath|
|Created by|BobMcElrath|
|Email|my first name at my last name dot org|
|Location|http://bob.mcelrath.org/tiddlyjsmath.html|
|Version|1.5.1|
|Requires|[[TiddlyWiki|http://www.tiddlywiki.com]] &ge; 2.0.3, [[jsMath|http://www.math.union.edu/~dpvc/jsMath/]] &ge; 3.0|
!Description
LaTeX is the world standard for specifying, typesetting, and communicating mathematics among scientists, engineers, and mathematicians.  For more information about LaTeX itself, visit the [[LaTeX Project|http://www.latex-project.org/]].  This plugin typesets math using [[jsMath|http://www.math.union.edu/~dpvc/jsMath/]], which is an implementation of the TeX math rules and typesetting in javascript, for your browser.  Notice the small button in the lower right corner which opens its control panel.
!Installation
In addition to this plugin, you must also [[install jsMath|http://www.math.union.edu/~dpvc/jsMath/download/jsMath.html]] on the same server as your TiddlyWiki html file.  If you're using TiddlyWiki without a web server, then the jsMath directory must be placed in the same location as the TiddlyWiki html file.

I also recommend modifying your StyleSheet use serif fonts that are slightly larger than normal, so that the math matches surrounding text, and \\small fonts are not unreadable (as in exponents and subscripts).
{{{
.viewer {
  line-height: 125%;
  font-family: serif;
  font-size: 12pt;
}
}}}

If you had used a previous version of [[Plugin: jsMath]], it is no longer necessary to edit the main tiddlywiki.html file to add the jsMath <script> tag.  [[Plugin: jsMath]] now uses ajax to load jsMath.
!History
* 11-Nov-05, version 1.0, Initial release
* 22-Jan-06, version 1.1, updated for ~TW2.0, tested with jsMath 3.1, editing tiddlywiki.html by hand is no longer necessary.
* 24-Jan-06, version 1.2, fixes for Safari, Konqueror
* 27-Jan-06, version 1.3, improved error handling, detect if ajax was already defined (used by ZiddlyWiki)
* 12-Jul-06, version 1.4, fixed problem with not finding image fonts
* 26-Feb-07, version 1.5, fixed problem with Mozilla "unterminated character class".
* 27-Feb-07, version 1.5.1, Runs compatibly with TW 2.1.0+, by Bram Chen
!Examples
|!Source|!Output|h
|{{{The variable $x$ is real.}}}|The variable $x$ is real.|
|{{{The variable \(y\) is complex.}}}|The variable \(y\) is complex.|
|{{{This \[\int_a^b x = \frac{1}{2}(b^2-a^2)\] is an easy integral.}}}|This \[\int_a^b x = \frac{1}{2}(b^2-a^2)\] is an easy integral.|
|{{{This $$\int_a^b \sin x = -(\cos b - \cos a)$$ is another easy integral.}}}|This $$\int_a^b \sin x = -(\cos b - \cos a)$$ is another easy integral.|
|{{{Block formatted equations may also use the 'equation' environment \begin{equation}  \int \tan x = -\ln \cos x \end{equation} }}}|Block formatted equations may also use the 'equation' environment \begin{equation}  \int \tan x = -\ln \cos x \end{equation}|
|{{{Equation arrays are also supported \begin{eqnarray} a &=& b \\ c &=& d \end{eqnarray} }}}|Equation arrays are also supported \begin{eqnarray} a &=& b \\ c &=& d \end{eqnarray} |
|{{{I spent \$7.38 on lunch.}}}|I spent \$7.38 on lunch.|
|{{{I had to insert a backslash (\\) into my document}}}|I had to insert a backslash (\\) into my document|
!Code
***/
//{{{

// AJAX code adapted from http://timmorgan.org/mini
// This is already loaded by ziddlywiki...
if(typeof(window["ajax"]) == "undefined") {
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      x: function(){try{return new ActiveXObject('Msxml2.XMLHTTP')}catch(e){try{return new ActiveXObject('Microsoft.XMLHTTP')}catch(e){return new XMLHttpRequest()}}},
      gets: function(url){var x=ajax.x();x.open('GET',url,false);x.send(null);return x.responseText}
  }
}

// Load jsMath
jsMath = {
  Setup: {inited: 1},          // don't run jsMath.Setup.Body() yet
  Autoload: {root: new String(document.location).replace(/[^\/]*$/,'jsMath/')}  // URL to jsMath directory, change if necessary
};
var jsMathstr;
try {
  jsMathstr = ajax.gets(jsMath.Autoload.root+"jsMath.js");
} catch(e) {
  alert("jsMath was not found: you must place the 'jsMath' directory in the same place as this file.  "
       +"The error was:\n"+e.name+": "+e.message);
  throw(e);  // abort eval
}
try {
  window.eval(jsMathstr);
} catch(e) {
  alert("jsMath failed to load.  The error was:\n"+e.name + ": " + e.message + " on line " + e.lineNumber);
}
jsMath.Setup.inited=0;  //  allow jsMath.Setup.Body() to run again

// Define wikifers for latex
config.formatterHelpers.mathFormatHelper = function(w) {
    var e = document.createElement(this.element);
    e.className = this.className;
    var endRegExp = new RegExp(this.terminator, "mg");
    endRegExp.lastIndex = w.matchStart+w.matchLength;
    var matched = endRegExp.exec(w.source);
    if(matched) {
        var txt = w.source.substr(w.matchStart+w.matchLength, 
            matched.index-w.matchStart-w.matchLength);
        if(this.keepdelim) {
          txt = w.source.substr(w.matchStart, matched.index+matched[0].length-w.matchStart);
        }
        e.appendChild(document.createTextNode(txt));
        w.output.appendChild(e);
        w.nextMatch = endRegExp.lastIndex;
    }
}

config.formatters.push({
  name: "displayMath1",
  match: "\\\$\\\$",
  terminator: "\\\$\\\$\\n?", // 2.0 compatability
  termRegExp: "\\\$\\\$\\n?",
  element: "div",
  className: "math",
  handler: config.formatterHelpers.mathFormatHelper
});

config.formatters.push({
  name: "inlineMath1",
  match: "\\\$", 
  terminator: "\\\$", // 2.0 compatability
  termRegExp: "\\\$",
  element: "span",
  className: "math",
  handler: config.formatterHelpers.mathFormatHelper
});

var backslashformatters = new Array(0);

backslashformatters.push({
  name: "inlineMath2",
  match: "\\\\\\\(",
  terminator: "\\\\\\\)", // 2.0 compatability
  termRegExp: "\\\\\\\)",
  element: "span",
  className: "math",
  handler: config.formatterHelpers.mathFormatHelper
});

backslashformatters.push({
  name: "displayMath2",
  match: "\\\\\\\[",
  terminator: "\\\\\\\]\\n?", // 2.0 compatability
  termRegExp: "\\\\\\\]\\n?",
  element: "div",
  className: "math",
  handler: config.formatterHelpers.mathFormatHelper
});

backslashformatters.push({
  name: "displayMath3",
  match: "\\\\begin\\{equation\\}",
  terminator: "\\\\end\\{equation\\}\\n?", // 2.0 compatability
  termRegExp: "\\\\end\\{equation\\}\\n?",
  element: "div",
  className: "math",
  handler: config.formatterHelpers.mathFormatHelper
});

// These can be nested.  e.g. \begin{equation} \begin{array}{ccc} \begin{array}{ccc} ...
backslashformatters.push({
  name: "displayMath4",
  match: "\\\\begin\\{eqnarray\\}",
  terminator: "\\\\end\\{eqnarray\\}\\n?", // 2.0 compatability
  termRegExp: "\\\\end\\{eqnarray\\}\\n?",
  element: "div",
  className: "math",
  keepdelim: true,
  handler: config.formatterHelpers.mathFormatHelper
});

// The escape must come between backslash formatters and regular ones.
// So any latex-like \commands must be added to the beginning of
// backslashformatters here.
backslashformatters.push({
    name: "escape",
    match: "\\\\.",
    handler: function(w) {
        w.output.appendChild(document.createTextNode(w.source.substr(w.matchStart+1,1)));
        w.nextMatch = w.matchStart+2;
    }
});

config.formatters=backslashformatters.concat(config.formatters);

window.wikify = function(source,output,highlightRegExp,tiddler)
{
    if(source && source != "") {
        if(version.major == 2 && version.minor > 0) {
            var wikifier = new Wikifier(source,getParser(tiddler),highlightRegExp,tiddler);
            wikifier.subWikifyUnterm(output);
        } else {
            var wikifier = new Wikifier(source,formatter,highlightRegExp,tiddler);
            wikifier.subWikify(output,null);
        }
        jsMath.ProcessBeforeShowing();
    }
}
//}}}

Tiddlywiki notebook

Marc Meléndez Schofield

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h4,h5,h6 {margin-top:1em;}
h1 {font-size:1.35em;}
h2 {font-size:1.25em;}
h3 {font-size:1.1em;}
h4 {font-size:1em;}
h5 {font-size:.9em;}

hr {height:1px;}

a {text-decoration:none;}

dt {font-weight:bold;}

ol {list-style-type:decimal;}
ol ol {list-style-type:lower-alpha;}
ol ol ol {list-style-type:lower-roman;}
ol ol ol ol {list-style-type:decimal;}
ol ol ol ol ol {list-style-type:lower-alpha;}
ol ol ol ol ol ol {list-style-type:lower-roman;}
ol ol ol ol ol ol ol {list-style-type:decimal;}

.txtOptionInput {width:11em;}

#contentWrapper .chkOptionInput {border:0;}

.externalLink {text-decoration:underline;}

.indent {margin-left:3em;}
.outdent {margin-left:3em; text-indent:-3em;}
code.escaped {white-space:nowrap;}

.tiddlyLinkExisting {font-weight:bold;}
.tiddlyLinkNonExisting {font-style:italic;}

/* the 'a' is required for IE, otherwise it renders the whole tiddler in bold */
a.tiddlyLinkNonExisting.shadow {font-weight:bold;}

#mainMenu .tiddlyLinkExisting,
	#mainMenu .tiddlyLinkNonExisting,
	#sidebarTabs .tiddlyLinkNonExisting {font-weight:normal; font-style:normal;}
#sidebarTabs .tiddlyLinkExisting {font-weight:bold; font-style:normal;}

.header {position:relative;}
.header a:hover {background:transparent;}
.headerShadow {position:relative; padding:4.5em 0 1em 1em; left:-1px; top:-1px;}
.headerForeground {position:absolute; padding:4.5em 0 1em 1em; left:0px; top:0px;}

.siteTitle {font-size:3em;}
.siteSubtitle {font-size:1.2em;}

#mainMenu {position:absolute; left:0; width:10em; text-align:right; line-height:1.6em; padding:1.5em 0.5em 0.5em 0.5em; font-size:1.1em;}

#sidebar {position:absolute; right:3px; width:16em; font-size:.9em;}
#sidebarOptions {padding-top:0.3em;}
#sidebarOptions a {margin:0 0.2em; padding:0.2em 0.3em; display:block;}
#sidebarOptions input {margin:0.4em 0.5em;}
#sidebarOptions .sliderPanel {margin-left:1em; padding:0.5em; font-size:.85em;}
#sidebarOptions .sliderPanel a {font-weight:bold; display:inline; padding:0;}
#sidebarOptions .sliderPanel input {margin:0 0 0.3em 0;}
#sidebarTabs .tabContents {width:15em; overflow:hidden;}

.wizard {padding:0.1em 1em 0 2em;}
.wizard h1 {font-size:2em; font-weight:bold; background:none; padding:0; margin:0.4em 0 0.2em;}
.wizard h2 {font-size:1.2em; font-weight:bold; background:none; padding:0; margin:0.4em 0 0.2em;}
.wizardStep {padding:1em 1em 1em 1em;}
.wizard .button {margin:0.5em 0 0; font-size:1.2em;}
.wizardFooter {padding:0.8em 0.4em 0.8em 0;}
.wizardFooter .status {padding:0 0.4em; margin-left:1em;}
.wizard .button {padding:0.1em 0.2em;}

#messageArea {position:fixed; top:2em; right:0; margin:0.5em; padding:0.5em; z-index:2000; _position:absolute;}
.messageToolbar {display:block; text-align:right; padding:0.2em;}
#messageArea a {text-decoration:underline;}

.tiddlerPopupButton {padding:0.2em;}
.popupTiddler {position: absolute; z-index:300; padding:1em; margin:0;}

.popup {position:absolute; z-index:300; font-size:.9em; padding:0; list-style:none; margin:0;}
.popup .popupMessage {padding:0.4em;}
.popup hr {display:block; height:1px; width:auto; padding:0; margin:0.2em 0;}
.popup li.disabled {padding:0.4em;}
.popup li a {display:block; padding:0.4em; font-weight:normal; cursor:pointer;}
.listBreak {font-size:1px; line-height:1px;}
.listBreak div {margin:2px 0;}

.tabset {padding:1em 0 0 0.5em;}
.tab {margin:0 0 0 0.25em; padding:2px;}
.tabContents {padding:0.5em;}
.tabContents ul, .tabContents ol {margin:0; padding:0;}
.txtMainTab .tabContents li {list-style:none;}
.tabContents li.listLink { margin-left:.75em;}

#contentWrapper {display:block;}
#splashScreen {display:none;}

#displayArea {margin:1em 17em 0 14em;}

.toolbar {text-align:right; font-size:.9em;}

.tiddler {padding:1em 1em 0;}

.missing .viewer,.missing .title {font-style:italic;}

.title {font-size:1.6em; font-weight:bold;}

.missing .subtitle {display:none;}
.subtitle {font-size:1.1em;}

.tiddler .button {padding:0.2em 0.4em;}

.tagging {margin:0.5em 0.5em 0.5em 0; float:left; display:none;}
.isTag .tagging {display:block;}
.tagged {margin:0.5em; float:right;}
.tagging, .tagged {font-size:0.9em; padding:0.25em;}
.tagging ul, .tagged ul {list-style:none; margin:0.25em; padding:0;}
.tagClear {clear:both;}

.footer {font-size:.9em;}
.footer li {display:inline;}

.annotation {padding:0.5em; margin:0.5em;}

* html .viewer pre {width:99%; padding:0 0 1em 0;}
.viewer {line-height:1.4em; padding-top:0.5em;}
.viewer .button {margin:0 0.25em; padding:0 0.25em;}
.viewer blockquote {line-height:1.5em; padding-left:0.8em;margin-left:2.5em;}
.viewer ul, .viewer ol {margin-left:0.5em; padding-left:1.5em;}

.viewer table, table.twtable {border-collapse:collapse; margin:0.8em 1.0em;}
.viewer th, .viewer td, .viewer tr,.viewer caption,.twtable th, .twtable td, .twtable tr,.twtable caption {padding:3px;}
table.listView {font-size:0.85em; margin:0.8em 1.0em;}
table.listView th, table.listView td, table.listView tr {padding:0px 3px 0px 3px;}

.viewer pre {padding:0.5em; margin-left:0.5em; font-size:1.2em; line-height:1.4em; overflow:auto;}
.viewer code {font-size:1.2em; line-height:1.4em;}

.editor {font-size:1.1em;}
.editor input, .editor textarea {display:block; width:100%; font:inherit;}
.editorFooter {padding:0.25em 0; font-size:.9em;}
.editorFooter .button {padding-top:0px; padding-bottom:0px;}

.fieldsetFix {border:0; padding:0; margin:1px 0px;}

.sparkline {line-height:1em;}
.sparktick {outline:0;}

.zoomer {font-size:1.1em; position:absolute; overflow:hidden;}
.zoomer div {padding:1em;}

* html #backstage {width:99%;}
* html #backstageArea {width:99%;}
#backstageArea {display:none; position:relative; overflow: hidden; z-index:150; padding:0.3em 0.5em;}
#backstageToolbar {position:relative;}
#backstageArea a {font-weight:bold; margin-left:0.5em; padding:0.3em 0.5em;}
#backstageButton {display:none; position:absolute; z-index:175; top:0; right:0;}
#backstageButton a {padding:0.1em 0.4em; margin:0.1em;}
#backstage {position:relative; width:100%; z-index:50;}
#backstagePanel {display:none; z-index:100; position:absolute; width:90%; margin-left:3em; padding:1em;}
.backstagePanelFooter {padding-top:0.2em; float:right;}
.backstagePanelFooter a {padding:0.2em 0.4em;}
#backstageCloak {display:none; z-index:20; position:absolute; width:100%; height:100px;}

.whenBackstage {display:none;}
.backstageVisible .whenBackstage {display:block;}
/*}}}*/

*Content:
** [[MainMenu]]
** [[DefaultTiddlers]]
** [[Welcome]]
** [[About me|Marc]]
** [[Workflow]]
*Page config:
PageTemplate
|>|>|SiteTitle - SiteSubtitle|
|MainMenu|DefaultTiddlers<br><br><br><br>ViewTemplate<br><br>EditTemplate|SideBarOptions|
|~|~|OptionsPanel|
|~|~|AdvancedOptions|
|~|~|<<tiddler Configuration.SideBarTabs>>|

''StyleSheet:'' StyleSheetColors - StyleSheetLayout - StyleSheetPrint

SiteUrl

<!--{{{-->
<div class='toolbar' macro='toolbar [[ToolbarCommands::ViewToolbar]]'></div>
<div class='title' macro='view title'></div>
<div class='subtitle'><span macro='view modifier link'></span>, <span macro='view modified date'></span> (<span macro='message views.wikified.createdPrompt'></span> <span macro='view created date'></span>)</div>
<div class='tagging' macro='tagging'></div>
<div class='viewer' macro='view text wikified'></div>
<div class='tagged' macro='tags'></div>
<div class='tagClear'></div>
<!--}}}-->

Welcome to my very own tiddlywiki site.
!What's new?
Nothing's new... yet.

This is the workflow diagram for content:

1. Draught ideas on the Tiddlywiki notebook.
2. Articles are written in Gopherspace.
3. Finished articles are published on the web page.
4. Key concepts are published in the notebook.